Diplomats, former military leaders and academics from 19 countries gathered in Ankara on July 7-8 to assess the risk that the war in Ukraine could widen—and to argue that diplomacy needs to move back to the center of international strategy.
The meeting, billed as the “Alliance Conference to Prevent a Major War,” was organized by the research center of the World Civilisations Initiative, a group that promotes dialogue between civilizations and regularly hosts international discussions on geopolitical issues. The opinions reported in this article are those of the speakers cited.
Participants included representatives from the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, Spain, Switzerland and Greece. Discussions focused on ways to avoid a broader conflict and on strengthening cooperation among Turkey, Russia, China and Iran.
Ukraine talks in Ankara spotlight fears of nuclear escalation
Former CIA analyst Larry Johnson described Ukraine as an especially sensitive flashpoint. He said direct NATO involvement could raise the risk of nuclear escalation, and he argued that Russia could, under certain circumstances, consider using tactical nuclear weapons.
Retired Turkish Rear Adm. Deniz Kutluk laid out several scenarios that he said could lead to a larger war. In the most severe case, he warned that a new escalation could culminate in the use of tactical nuclear weapons targeting European capitals, potentially triggering a generalized conflict.
Kutluk argued that Europe and Russia would have more to gain by viewing each other as geopolitical partners, even as their relationship has entered what he described as a period of instability.
Dimitris Konstantakopoulos, a former adviser to Greek Prime Minister Andreas Papandreou, said rising tensions in Ukraine and in Western Asia could increase the risk of a nuclear confrontation. He called for de-escalation and lamented that few European political forces fully grasp the danger.
Speakers call for diplomacy—and for Europe to rethink its strategic posture
German political scientist Ulrike Guérot urged participants to reexamine NATO’s role and to return quickly to diplomacy. In her view, the conflict cannot be explained only by Russia’s actions; she said it also stems in part from NATO’s involvement and the United States’ long-term strategy.
Guérot also questioned whether current European policy is serving the continent’s own interests. Calling the pursuit of a total military victory unrealistic, she advocated reopening diplomatic dialogue in place of policies she said are helping prolong the war.
Javier Hurtado Mira, president of the European Democratic Youth Community, argued that the European Union lacks an independent foreign policy on Ukraine. He called for a reassessment of NATO’s role and of decision-making mechanisms in Brussels.
Hurtado Mira also said younger generations bear a large share of the human cost of wars, urging governments to prioritize negotiation and dialogue over policies that could intensify tensions.
NATO strategy questioned as experts warn Europe is closer to major war
British professor Richard Sakwa described three phases in NATO’s evolution and said the alliance is now entering what he called “NATO 3.0.” He said this stage would involve European countries taking on a larger share of the military burden, allowing the United States to focus more attention on other regions, including the South China Sea and Taiwan.
Sakwa said that model brings renewed emphasis on containing Russian influence. He also argued the Ankara conference did not produce a durable approach to the war in Ukraine, warning that trying to force Russia to negotiate mainly through military pressure could instead fuel escalation.
Retired German Vice Adm. Kai-Achim Schönbach, who led Germany’s navy until 2022, said Europe has not been this close to a major war since the Cuban Missile Crisis. He said the conflict could have been avoided and attributed its escalation to insufficient risk assessment, political power dynamics, and too limited a consideration of historical causes.
Drawing on his military experience, Schönbach concluded that diplomacy based on mutual respect and equality among the parties remains the most effective way to prevent the conflict from expanding.
